Estadio Ricardo Saprissa Aymá · Referee W. Matus · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Deportivo Saprissa vs Sporting San Jose Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Deportivo Saprissa and 1.45 for Sporting San Jose, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Deportivo Saprissa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Deportivo Saprissa home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting San Jose away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Saprissa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Deportivo Saprissa and 1.45 for Sporting San Jose, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Deportivo Saprissa
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Cartagines · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Escorpiones Belén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Herediano · 2-0 (W)
Sporting San Jose
- 2026-09-19T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:00:00.000Z · A vs San Carlos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter San Carlos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Herediano · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Puntarenas FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 7 | Inter San Carlos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.