· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Derby County U21 vs Carlisle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Derby County U21 and 1.99 for Carlisle, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Carlisle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derby County U21 home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Carlisle away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carlisle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Derby County U21 and 1.99 for Carlisle, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.9%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.2%
Recent form
Derby County U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley U21 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading U21 · 3-1 (W)
Carlisle
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Fylde · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Woking · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eastleigh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Forest Green · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.