Pride Park · Analysis updated 04:08 UTC
Derby vs Blackburn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Derby and 1.47 for Blackburn, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Derby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Derby or Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.4%
- 0–16.9%
Why the model likes this
Derby home form
0 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Derby and 1.47 for Blackburn, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Derby
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mansfield Town · 3-1 (W)
Blackburn
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T12:30:00.000Z · Derby 3-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2025-11-08T12:30:00.000Z · Derby 2-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 2-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2024-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · Derby 2-4 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2022-03-15T19:45:00.000Z · Derby 1-3 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2021-10-30T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 1-2 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2021-04-16T17:00:00.000Z · Derby 1-2 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2020-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-4 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2020-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 3-0 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2019-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-1 Blackburn (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.