Pride Park · Analysis updated 01:54 UTC
Derby vs Cardiff Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Derby and 0.89 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Derby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 45% of the time.
Model pick
Derby to Win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.8%
Why the model likes this
Cardiff away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Derby and 0.89 for Cardiff, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.70 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 3.75 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 4.60 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | 1.30 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | 3.35 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.80 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.55 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.28 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 0.5 | 9.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 7.00 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.09 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | 1.91 | 10Bet |
| BTTS | No | 1.83 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 10Bet |
Recent form
Derby
Cardiff
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Forest Green · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cork City · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Midtjylland · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.