Derby vs Stoke City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Derby and 1.75 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Stoke City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Stoke City win

53.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Derby home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stoke City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Derby win23%

Draw24%

Stoke City win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.2%
0–110.6%
1–29.8%
0–29.3%
1–06.4%

Recent form

Derby

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-3 (L)

Stoke City

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Charlton · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 2-0 Stoke City (Championship)
2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 1-3 Stoke City (Championship)
2025-05-03T11:30:00.000Z · Derby 0-0 Stoke City (Championship)
2024-11-02T12:30:00.000Z · Derby 1-2 Stoke City (Championship)
2023-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 3-0 Stoke City (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-12-30T19:45:00.000Z · Derby 2-1 Stoke City (Championship)
2021-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 2-1 Stoke City (Championship)
2021-03-20T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-1 Stoke City (Championship)
2020-12-12T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-0 Stoke City (Championship)
2020-01-31T19:45:00.000Z · Derby 4-0 Stoke City (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	5	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
4	Stoke City	9	5	1	3	2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	2	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	1	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	-3	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	-3	11
16	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Stoke City win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.