Derby vs Watford Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Derby and 1.08 for Watford, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Derby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Derby home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Watford away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Derby win37%

Draw29%

Watford win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–012.5%
0–111.9%
0–011.1%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Derby

2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 0-1 (L)

Watford

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-21T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-2 Watford (Championship)
2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 2-3 Watford (Championship)
2025-01-18T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-2 Watford (Championship)
2024-08-24T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 1-2 Watford (Championship)
2021-02-19T19:45:00.000Z · Derby 1-2 Watford (Championship)
2020-10-16T18:45:00.000Z · Derby 0-1 Watford (Championship)
2015-04-03T18:45:00.000Z · Derby 2-2 Watford (Championship)
2014-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 2-1 Watford (Championship)
2014-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 4-2 Watford (Championship)
2013-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 3-2 Watford (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	West Ham	10	5	4	1	17	19
4	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
5	QPR	10	4	5	1	6	17
6	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
7	Southampton	10	6	2	2	11	16
8	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
9	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
10	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
11	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
12	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
13	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	10	3	3	4	0	12
16	Portsmouth	9	3	2	4	-1	11
17	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
18	Lincoln	10	3	2	5	-10	11
19	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
20	Norwich	10	3	0	7	-3	9
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	10	1	3	6	-10	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.