Pride Park · Referee James Bell, England · Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Derby vs West Brom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Derby and 1.90 for West Brom, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives West Brom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
West Brom win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derby home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
West Brom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.7%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.5%
Recent form
Derby
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 1-2 (L)
West Brom
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · Derby 0-1 West Brom (Championship)
- 2026-01-23T20:00:00.000Z · Derby 1-1 West Brom (Championship)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 1-0 West Brom (Championship)
- 2025-08-12T18:45:00.000Z · Derby 1-1 West Brom (League Cup)
- 2025-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · Derby 3-1 West Brom (Championship)
- 2024-12-26T17:30:00.000Z · Derby 2-1 West Brom (Championship)
- 2022-08-23T18:45:00.000Z · Derby 1-0 West Brom (League Cup)
- 2021-12-27T15:00:00.000Z · Derby 1-0 West Brom (Championship)
- 2021-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-0 West Brom (Championship)
- 2020-07-08T16:00:00.000Z · Derby 0-2 West Brom (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 |
| 8 | Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 12 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 11 |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -4 | 9 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is West Brom win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.