· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Deren vs Amtat FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.61 expected goals for Deren and 0.69 for Amtat FC, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Deren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deren win
88.8% probability
Expected goals
3.61 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 8% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.61 goals for Deren and 0.69 for Amtat FC, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 48%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 89% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 78/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–010.6%
- 4–09.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–17.3%
- 5–06.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw | 15.00 | 6.3% | 7.6% | 13.16 | +1.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 4.50 | 20.6% | 20.9% | 4.78 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 9.00 | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.93 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 26.00 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 27.78 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.17 | 79.4% | 79.1% | 1.26 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.04 | 90.1% | 88.8% | 1.13 | -1.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.01 | 99.0% | 92.4% | 1.08 | -6.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Deren
Amtat FC
- 2026-09-27T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Deren · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaanbaatar · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Erchim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| 2 | Ulaanbaatar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 19 |
| 3 | Deren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Khovd | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Hunters | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Erchim | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 7 | Khovd Western | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 3 |
| 8 | Amtat FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -26 | 3 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deren win, at 88.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.