· Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Deren vs Ulaanbaatar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.84 expected goals for Deren and 2.47 for Ulaanbaatar, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives Ulaanbaatar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ulaanbaatar win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.84 – 2.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ulaanbaatar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ulaanbaatar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 29% / 19% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.84 goals for Deren and 2.47 for Ulaanbaatar, a combined 4.32 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 77%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–36.2%
- 1–16.1%
- 2–35.7%
Recent form
Deren
Ulaanbaatar
- 2026-08-11T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hang Yuen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-06T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Deren · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khangarid · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-06-30T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Deren · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Stallions | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 21 |
| 2 | Ulaanbaatar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 19 |
| 3 | Deren | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Khovd | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Hunters | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Erchim | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 7 | Khovd Western | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 3 |
| 8 | Amtat FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -26 | 3 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -22 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ulaanbaatar win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.