· Analysis updated 09:00 UTC
Derio vs Lagun Onak Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Derio and 0.76 for Lagun Onak, a combined total of 2.39. That distribution gives Derio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Derio win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derio home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lagun Onak away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.2%
Recent form
Derio
- 2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lagun Onak · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Touring · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Durango · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Beasain · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-1 (W)
Lagun Onak
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Aretxabaleta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs San Ignacio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad III · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · Derio 2-0 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · Derio 0-2 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2026-02-07T17:30:00.000Z · Derio 0-1 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2025-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · Derio 0-3 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2025-01-18T18:00:00.000Z · Derio 2-0 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2024-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · Derio 1-1 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2024-04-14T10:00:00.000Z · Derio 2-3 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
- 2023-11-25T16:00:00.000Z · Derio 0-2 Lagun Onak (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leioa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Derio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | San Ignacio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Touring | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Durango | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Eibar III | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Beasain | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Sodupe | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Pasaia KE | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Santurtzi | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lagun Onak | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Erandio | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Derio win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.