Derio vs Leioa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Derio and 1.20 for Leioa, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Derio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Derio home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leioa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Derio win42%

Draw26%

Leioa win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.4%
0–18.9%
2–18.7%
1–27.5%

Recent form

Derio

2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs San Ignacio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 1-1 (D)

Leioa

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amurrio Club · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar III · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs R. Union B · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pasaia KE · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bergantiños · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-06T17:00:00.000Z · Derio 0-1 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · Derio 0-1 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · Derio 0-0 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-12-07T15:30:00.000Z · Derio 1-0 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2025-03-22T16:00:00.000Z · Derio 1-2 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2024-11-09T18:00:00.000Z · Derio 0-1 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2024-04-26T17:30:00.000Z · Derio 3-1 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2023-12-16T17:00:00.000Z · Derio 1-1 Leioa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.