· Analysis updated 12:15 UTC
Derio vs Real Sociedad III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Derio and 0.99 for Real Sociedad III, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Derio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Derio win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derio home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 27% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Derio and 0.99 for Real Sociedad III, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Derio
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs San Ignacio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 1-1 (D)
Real Sociedad III
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Aretxabaleta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Leioa | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Derio | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Deportivo Alavés III | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Touring | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad III | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Beasain | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Durango | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Pasaia KE | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Lagun Onak | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Erandio | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Santurtzi | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Derio win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.