Derio vs Santurtzi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Derio and 0.53 for Santurtzi, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Derio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Derio win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.39 – 0.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Derio home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 28% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Derio and 0.53 for Santurtzi, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 31%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.

Match result (1X2)

Derio win58%

Draw28%

Santurtzi win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–020.3%
0–014.6%
2–014.1%
1–110.8%
0–17.8%

Recent form

Derio

2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Aretxabaleta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santurtzi · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs San Ignacio · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 1-1 (D)

Santurtzi

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Derio win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.