The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium · Referee J. Sabotic · Analysis updated 04:08 UTC
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Derry City and 1.18 for CSKA Sofia, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Derry City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Derry City or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Derry City home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSKA Sofia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derry City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Derry City and 1.18 for CSKA Sofia, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Derry City
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs UCD · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sligo Rovers · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs St Patrick's Athl. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs HNK Rijeka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-23T18:45:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-1 (L)
CSKA Sofia
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Tel Aviv · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Dunav Ruse · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Qarabag · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.