The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium · Referee P. McLaughlin · Analysis updated 15:46 UTC
Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Derry City and 1.33 for Dundalk, a combined total of 3.56. That distribution gives Derry City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Derry City win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derry City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dundalk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derry City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Derry City and 1.33 for Dundalk, a combined 3.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–07.0%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Derry City
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Galway United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Waterford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Shelbourne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundalk · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shamrock Rovers · 3-3 (D)
Dundalk
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs St Patrick's Athl. · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Waterford · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Derry City win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.