Brandywell Stadium · Analysis updated 01:38 UTC
Derry City vs Dundalk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Derry City and 1.27 for Dundalk, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Derry City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Derry City win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derry City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dundalk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derry City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Derry City and 1.27 for Dundalk, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Derry City
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Galway United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Waterford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Shelbourne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundalk · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shamrock Rovers · 3-3 (D)
Dundalk
- 2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sligo Rovers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Shelbourne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs St Patrick's Athl. · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Waterford · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 35 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Bohemians | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 18 | 62 |
| 3 | St Patrick's Athl. | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 60 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 5 | Derry City | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 47 |
| 6 | Galway United | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | -5 | 42 |
| 7 | Dundalk | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | -6 | 42 |
| 8 | Waterford | 35 | 9 | 13 | 13 | -8 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 35 | 5 | 9 | 21 | -38 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Derry City win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.