The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium · Referee P. McLaughlin · Analysis updated 14:02 UTC
Derry City vs Sligo Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Derry City and 0.73 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Derry City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Derry City win
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derry City home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derry City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Derry City and 0.73 for Sligo Rovers, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.3%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.5%
Recent form
Derry City
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Galway United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Waterford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Shelbourne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dundalk · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Shamrock Rovers · 3-3 (D)
Sligo Rovers
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 65 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Derry City win, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.