The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium · Analysis updated 08:19 UTC
Derry City W vs Cliftonville W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Derry City W and 3.10 for Cliftonville W, a combined total of 4.91. That distribution gives Cliftonville W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cliftonville W win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 3.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derry City W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cliftonville W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cliftonville W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 21% / 16% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Derry City W and 3.10 for Cliftonville W, a combined 4.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.6%
- 1–26.4%
- 2–36.0%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–45.1%
Recent form
Derry City W
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lisburn Ladies W · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lisburn Ladies W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Linfield W · 1-2 (L)
Cliftonville W
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Glentoran BU W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Linfield W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lisburn Rangers W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derry City W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran BU W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Glentoran BU W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 |
| 3 | Cliftonville W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 |
| 4 | Linfield W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 |
| 5 | Derry City W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lisburn Ladies W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -22 | 4 |
| 7 | Larne W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cliftonville W win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.