· Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Derthona vs Imperia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Derthona and 1.24 for Imperia, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Derthona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derthona home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Imperia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derthona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Derthona and 1.24 for Imperia, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–18.2%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Derthona
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alessandria · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Millesimo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ligorna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperia · 1-1 (D)
Imperia
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borgosesia · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lascaris · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alessandria · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Chisola | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Biellese | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Millesimo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Imperia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Sanremese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Derthona | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Borgosesia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Saluzzo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Asti | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Lascaris | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Gozzano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Bra | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Fezzanese | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Sestri Levante | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.