· Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Derthona vs Lascaris Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Derthona and 0.92 for Lascaris, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Derthona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Derthona win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Derthona home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derthona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 28% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Derthona and 0.92 for Lascaris, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.9%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Derthona
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alessandria · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Millesimo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ligorna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperia · 1-1 (D)
Lascaris
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Biellese | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Millesimo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | Chisola | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Sanremese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Lascaris | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Asti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Imperia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Saluzzo | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Gozzano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Bra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Borgosesia | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Sestri Levante | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Fezzanese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Derthona win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.