Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni · Referee M. Cavacini · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Desenzano Calvina vs Juventus U23 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Desenzano Calvina and 0.83 for Juventus U23, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Desenzano Calvina the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Desenzano Calvina win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Desenzano Calvina home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Desenzano Calvina to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Desenzano Calvina and 0.83 for Juventus U23, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.9%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–19.1%
Recent form
Desenzano Calvina
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dolomiti Bellunesi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Folgore Caratese · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus U23 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Treviso · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lecco · 1-3 (L)
Juventus U23
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Carpi · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Novara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Forli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pisa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pianese · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cittadella | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Union Brescia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Ospitaletto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Arzignano Valchiampo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Trento | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Treviso | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Albinoleffe | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Alcione | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Desenzano Calvina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Novara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | PRO Vercelli | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Lecco | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Lumezzane | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Pergolettese | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Athletic Carpi | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Folgore Caratese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 18 | Juventus U23 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Giana Erminio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 20 | Renate | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Desenzano Calvina win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.