· Analysis updated 14:34 UTC
Desportivo Brasil vs União São João Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Desportivo Brasil and 1.50 for União São João, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives União São João the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
União São João win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Desportivo Brasil home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
União São João away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União São João to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 17% / 26% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Desportivo Brasil and 1.50 for União São João, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.0%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–28.6%
Recent form
Desportivo Brasil
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs XV de Jau · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Preto · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-11T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Catanduva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-03-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Uniao Barbarense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Itapirense · 1-2 (L)
União São João
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs São José EC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs São José EC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grêmio Prudente · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-25T18:00:00.000Z · Desportivo Brasil 0-0 União São João (Paulista - A3)
- 2025-02-05T18:00:00.000Z · Desportivo Brasil 3-3 União São João (Paulista - A3)
- 2024-03-02T18:00:00.000Z · Desportivo Brasil 0-0 União São João (Paulista - A3)
Paulista - A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Marília | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 7 | EC São Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 9 | União São João | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante SP | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo Brasil | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | USAC | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -18 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is União São João win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.