Armand Melis Stadium · Analysis updated 00:19 UTC
Dessel Sport vs Cercle Brugge II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Dessel Sport and 1.45 for Cercle Brugge II, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Dessel Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dessel Sport win
52.4% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dessel Sport home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cercle Brugge II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–18.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Dessel Sport
- 2026-10-24T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Spouwen-Mopertingen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Roeselare Daisel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Harelbeke · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 1-1 (D)
Cercle Brugge II
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Thes Sport · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tienen · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 3-1 Cercle Brugge II (First Amateur Division)
- 2026-04-18T17:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 2-2 Cercle Brugge II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 1-3 Cercle Brugge II (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-02-09T14:00:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 3-2 Cercle Brugge II (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-11-23T18:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 3-2 Cercle Brugge II (First Amateur Division)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rochefort | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Meux | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | RWDM | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 5 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Tubize | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 12 |
| 10 | Habay-la-Neuve | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 11 | Onhaye | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Flénu | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -21 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dessel Sport win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.