Armand Melis Stadium · Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Dessel Sport vs Hoogstraten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Dessel Sport and 2.50 for Hoogstraten, a combined total of 6.00. That distribution gives Dessel Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dessel Sport win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dessel Sport home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hoogstraten away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.5%
- 4–24.8%
- 2–24.7%
- 3–34.6%
- 3–14.4%
Recent form
Dessel Sport
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cercle Brugge II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Houtvenne · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tienen · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Hasselt · 0-1 (L)
Hoogstraten
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mandel United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dessel Sport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Merelbeke · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 1-1 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-12-13T19:00:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 0-2 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-09-10T18:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 1-3 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2025-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 1-0 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-09-01T13:00:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 2-3 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2024-03-20T19:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 2-0 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2023-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 1-2 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2023-04-29T17:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 1-2 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2022-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 1-0 Hoogstraten (First Amateur Division)
- 2020-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · Dessel Sport 3-1 Hoogstraten (Cup)
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dessel Sport win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 93%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.