Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Detroit City and 0.63 for Hartford Athletic, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Detroit City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Detroit City win

47.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.11 – 0.63

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Detroit City home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Detroit City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 32% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Detroit City and 0.63 for Hartford Athletic, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 25% and both teams to score at 32%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.

Match result (1X2)

Detroit City win47%

Draw32%

Hartford Athletic win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals25%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

1–019.4%
0–017.5%
1–112.3%
0–111.1%
2–010.8%

Recent form

Detroit City

2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham Legion · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Brooklyn · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Springs · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 0-1 (L)

Hartford Athletic

2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Louisville City · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Las Vegas Lights · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting JAX · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

USL Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	28	16	7	5	23	55
2	Detroit City	28	14	8	6	14	50
3	Charleston Battery	27	14	4	9	19	46
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	28	12	5	11	2	41
5	Louisville City	27	11	7	9	3	40
6	Hartford Athletic	27	9	12	6	2	39
7	Rhode Island	27	11	5	11	9	38
8	Miami FC	29	9	9	11	-9	36
9	Indy Eleven	28	9	7	12	-2	34
10	Loudoun United	27	5	12	10	-10	27
11	Birmingham Legion	26	4	11	11	-7	23
12	Brooklyn	27	4	6	17	-28	18
13	Sporting JAX	27	3	5	19	-41	14
1	El Paso Locomotive	28	15	5	8	12	50
2	New Mexico United	28	14	7	7	11	49
3	Sacramento Republic	28	11	12	5	12	45
4	Lexington	28	13	5	10	16	44
5	FC Tulsa	28	11	10	7	7	43
6	Colorado Springs	28	11	8	9	3	41
7	Orange County SC	28	10	9	9	-7	39
8	San Antonio	28	9	12	7	0	39
9	Phoenix Rising	28	9	9	10	-3	36
10	Las Vegas Lights	28	10	6	12	-4	36
11	Oakland Roots	28	8	11	9	-2	35
12	Monterey Bay	28	5	6	17	-20	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Detroit City win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.