Fusha Sportive Bilisht · Analysis updated 15:55 UTC
Devolli vs Shkumbini Peqin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.41 expected goals for Devolli and 1.35 for Shkumbini Peqin, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Devolli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Devolli win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
2.41 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Devolli home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Shkumbini Peqin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Devolli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.41 goals for Devolli and 1.35 for Shkumbini Peqin, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–06.8%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Devolli
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomori Berat · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Këlcyra · 3-4 (L)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Memaliaj · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 1-4 (L)
Shkumbini Peqin
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 1-6 (L)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Maliqi · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomori Berat · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-03-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2nd Division - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luftëtari | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 51 |
| 2 | Oriku | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 51 |
| 3 | Tomori Berat | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 35 |
| 4 | Devolli | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 34 |
| 5 | Butrinti Sarandë | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 33 |
| 6 | Delvina | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 26 |
| 7 | Shkumbini Peqin | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -14 | 20 |
| 8 | Maliqi | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -11 | 20 |
| 9 | Këlcyra | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -12 | 20 |
| 10 | Turbina Cërrik | 20 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 19 |
| 11 | Memaliaj | 20 | 1 | 1 | 18 | -64 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Devolli win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.