Dewa United vs Semen Padang Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Dewa United and 0.73 for Semen Padang, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Dewa United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dewa United win

62.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dewa United home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Semen Padang away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dewa United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Dewa United and 0.73 for Semen Padang, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dewa United win63%

Draw23%

Semen Padang win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.6%
2–012.9%
1–110.6%
2–19.4%
0–08.2%

Recent form

Dewa United

2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Pusamania Borneo · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bhayangkara FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persik Kediri · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bali United · 0-1 (L)

Semen Padang

2026-05-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Persija · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-15T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persebaya Surabaya · 0-7 (L)
2026-05-08T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persik Kediri · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-29T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persepam Madura Utd · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Dewa United 1-0 Semen Padang (Liga 1)
2025-08-15T08:30:00.000Z · Dewa United 0-2 Semen Padang (Liga 1)
2025-03-05T13:30:00.000Z · Dewa United 6-0 Semen Padang (Liga 1)
2024-10-25T08:30:00.000Z · Dewa United 8-1 Semen Padang (Liga 1)

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dewa United win, at 62.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.