· Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Dhofar vs Al Nasr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Dhofar and 1.36 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nasr win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nasr away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 24% / 28% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Dhofar and 1.36 for Al Nasr, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 44%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.6%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–09.4%
Recent form
Dhofar
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:20:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Dhofar · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nasr win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.