· Analysis updated 10:14 UTC
Diambars vs ES Zarzis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Diambars and 3.00 for ES Zarzis, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives ES Zarzis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ES Zarzis win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diambars home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ES Zarzis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ES Zarzis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Diambars and 3.00 for ES Zarzis, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–28.2%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.2%
Recent form
Diambars
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Essamaye · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-06-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Génération Foot · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs DSC · 2-7 (L)
ES Zarzis
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Diambars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Diambars · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ES Zarzis win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.