Diarra vs Djoliba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Diarra and 1.30 for Djoliba, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives Djoliba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Djoliba win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.74 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Diarra home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Djoliba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 21% / 29% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Diarra and 1.30 for Djoliba, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 38%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Match result (1X2)

Diarra win21%

Draw29%

Djoliba win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

0–116.9%
0–013.1%
1–112.5%
0–210.9%
1–09.7%

Recent form

Diarra

2026-10-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ASC Kara · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs ASC Kara · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nations · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nations · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Stade Malien Bamako · 0-2 (L)

Djoliba

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Première Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Djoliba	26	18	5	3	29	59
2	Stade Malien Bamako	26	14	8	4	13	50
3	Réal Bamako	26	14	7	5	18	49
4	Diarra	26	13	5	8	8	44
5	Binga	26	12	7	7	13	43
6	USFAS Bamako	26	12	6	8	10	42
7	ASKO	26	9	6	11	-3	33
8	US Bougouba	26	8	7	11	-13	31
9	Derby Academie	26	5	14	7	-3	29
10	Bakaridjan	26	6	9	11	-7	27
11	Afrique Football Élite	26	7	6	13	-15	27
12	Onze Créateurs	26	6	8	12	-8	26
13	Mali Coura	26	4	8	14	-11	20
14	Bougouni	26	4	4	18	-31	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Djoliba win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.