Didube 2014 vs Margveti 2006 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Didube 2014 and 1.05 for Margveti 2006, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Didube 2014 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Didube 2014 win

58.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Didube 2014 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Margveti 2006 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Didube 2014 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Didube 2014 and 1.05 for Margveti 2006, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Didube 2014 win58%

Draw22%

Margveti 2006 win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.9%
1–09.7%
2–09.5%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Didube 2014

2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Margveti 2006 · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gardabani · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 2-2 (D)

Margveti 2006

2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Guria · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	24	17	4	3	56	55
2	Varketili	24	15	8	1	43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	11	10	3	18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	11	7	5	10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	11	5	7	12	38
6	Gonio	23	11	5	7	8	38
7	Irao	23	10	5	8	11	35
8	Didube 2014	24	9	8	7	4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	9	5	9	1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	8	7	8	1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	9	4	11	-9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	7	4	13	-15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	2	11	11	-16	17
14	Gardabani	24	4	4	16	-40	16
15	Betlemi	24	4	4	16	-48	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	3	5	16	-36	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Didube 2014 win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.