· Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
Didube 2014 vs Varketili Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Didube 2014 and 1.70 for Varketili, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Varketili the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Varketili win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Didube 2014 home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Varketili away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varketili to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Didube 2014 and 1.70 for Varketili, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–28.0%
- 2–16.7%
Recent form
Didube 2014
- 2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Margveti 2006 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gardabani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 2-2 (D)
Varketili
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gonio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 51 |
| 2 | Varketili | 22 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 40 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 22 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Merani Tbilisi | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Gonio | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 35 |
| 7 | Irao | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 34 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 34 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 32 |
| 10 | Margveti 2006 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 28 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -17 | 21 |
| 13 | Gardabani | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -35 | 16 |
| 14 | Iveria Khashuri | 22 | 1 | 10 | 11 | -24 | 13 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | -41 | 13 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 15 | -38 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varketili win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.