Diefflen vs Ahrweiler Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Diefflen and 2.15 for Ahrweiler, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Ahrweiler the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ahrweiler win

60.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 2.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Diefflen home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ahrweiler away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ahrweiler to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 20% / 20% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Diefflen and 2.15 for Ahrweiler, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Diefflen win20%

Draw20%

Ahrweiler win60%

Double chance 1X

40%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals42%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–29.8%
1–19.1%
0–28.5%
0–17.9%
1–37.0%

Recent form

Diefflen

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ahrweiler · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Wormatia Worms · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha Wiesbach · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS Koblenz · 0-0 (D)

Ahrweiler

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Elversberg II · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mechtersheim · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Pirmasens · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wormatia Worms · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TuS RW Koblenz · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mechtersheim	14	10	1	3	15	31
2	Schott Mainz	14	8	5	1	17	29
3	Pirmasens	14	8	3	3	21	27
4	Gonsenheim	14	8	1	5	14	25
5	Gau-Odernheim	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	TuS RW Koblenz	14	6	5	3	8	23
7	FV Engers 07	13	6	4	3	9	22
8	TuS Koblenz	13	6	4	3	5	22
9	FC Emmelshausen-Karbach	14	6	4	4	-2	22
10	Wormatia Worms	14	6	3	5	11	21
11	RW Wittlich	13	6	3	4	7	21
12	Elversberg II	14	5	4	5	-5	19
13	Hertha Wiesbach	14	4	3	7	-10	15
14	Auersmacher	14	5	0	9	-12	15
15	Cosmos Koblenz	14	4	1	9	-9	13
16	Ahrweiler	14	1	5	8	-14	8
17	Diefflen	14	1	5	8	-22	8
18	Eisbachtal	14	0	1	13	-42	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ahrweiler win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.