· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Diegem Sport vs Rupel Boom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.26 expected goals for Diegem Sport and 1.33 for Rupel Boom, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives Diegem Sport the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Diegem Sport win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.26 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diegem Sport home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rupel Boom away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Diegem Sport to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.26 goals for Diegem Sport and 1.33 for Rupel Boom, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.3%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–07.0%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Diegem Sport
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tongeren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs De Kempen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Francs Borains · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bocholt · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sint-Truiden II · 2-6 (L)
Rupel Boom
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sint-Truiden II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rotselaar · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nijlen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs De Kempen · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Cappellen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Hades | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | De Kempen | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Wilrijk | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Diegem Sport | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Racing Mechelen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Eendracht Termien | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Wellen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Rotselaar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Rupel Boom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Nijlen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Bocholt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tongeren | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Sint-Truiden II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Diegem Sport win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.