Makario Stadium · Analysis updated 13:08 UTC
Digenis Morphou vs AE Zakakiou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Digenis Morphou and 1.28 for AE Zakakiou, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Digenis Morphou the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AE Zakakiou away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Digenis Morphou to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 25% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Digenis Morphou and 1.28 for AE Zakakiou, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Digenis Morphou
AE Zakakiou
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Digenis Morphou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-21T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ahironas / Onisilos · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Latsion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Yerolakkou · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartakos Kitiou · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 1-1 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
- 2026-02-28T13:00:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 3-2 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
- 2025-12-13T12:30:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 1-2 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
- 2025-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 5-1 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
- 2025-02-28T14:00:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 2-3 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
- 2024-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 2-3 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
- 2022-03-12T13:30:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 2-0 AE Zakakiou (3. Division)
- 2021-11-28T12:30:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 1-3 AE Zakakiou (3. Division)
- 2021-03-01T16:00:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 2-0 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
- 2020-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Digenis Morphou 0-2 AE Zakakiou (2. Division)
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | ASIL Lysi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Enosis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.