· Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Dijon vs UNFP Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Dijon and 1.37 for UNFP, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Dijon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dijon win
57.8% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dijon home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
UNFP away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dijon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Dijon and 1.37 for UNFP, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–06.7%
- 2–26.3%
Recent form
Dijon
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Laval · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Boulogne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Saint Etienne · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clermont Foot · 1-1 (D)
UNFP
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dijon · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dijon win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.