· Analysis updated 07:27 UTC
Diksmuide vs Harelbeke Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Diksmuide and 1.58 for Harelbeke, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Harelbeke the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Harelbeke win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diksmuide home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Harelbeke away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Harelbeke to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Diksmuide and 1.58 for Harelbeke, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Diksmuide
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Gent · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lebbeke · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HO Kalken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torhout · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kortrijk · 1-5 (L)
Harelbeke
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Thes Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dessel Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoogstraten · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harelbeke | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Londerzeel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Rupel Boom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | KRC Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Zulte Waregem II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 6 | Mechelen II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Bocholt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Diksmuide | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | Rotselaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Royal Antwerp II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Harelbeke win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.