· Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Diksmuide vs Kortrijk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Diksmuide and 1.14 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Diksmuide the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Diksmuide win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Diksmuide home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kortrijk away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Diksmuide to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Diksmuide and 1.14 for Kortrijk, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Diksmuide
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Gent · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Lebbeke · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HO Kalken · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torhout · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kortrijk · 1-5 (L)
Kortrijk
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heist · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs SK Beveren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs RAAL La Louvière · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Anderlecht · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · Diksmuide 1-5 Kortrijk (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Diksmuide win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.