Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Dila vs FC Iberia 1999 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Dila and 1.08 for FC Iberia 1999, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Dila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dila home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Iberia 1999 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Home | 2.36 | 38.9% | 39.3% | 2.54 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.2% | 28.3% | 3.53 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.79 | 32.9% | 32.4% | 3.09 | -0.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dila
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-1 (W)
FC Iberia 1999
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Meshakhte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dila · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Spaeri · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · Dila 1-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-03-06T16:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-12-10T15:00:00.000Z · Dila 3-1 FC Iberia 1999 (David Kipiani Cup)
- 2025-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Dila 1-2 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-6 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-06-26T16:00:00.000Z · Dila 3-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Super Cup)
- 2025-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-03-10T15:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-1 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-11-08T15:00:00.000Z · Dila 2-3 FC Iberia 1999 (Erovnuli Liga)
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rustavi | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 48 |
| 4 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 47 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 27 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 36 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | -14 | 32 |
| 8 | Gagra | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 27 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -9 | 25 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | 2 | 11 | 15 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.