Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium · Referee T. Samsonashvili · Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Dila vs Gagra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Dila and 1.03 for Gagra, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Dila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dila win
51.4% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dila home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gagra away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–011.5%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Dila
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rustavi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spaeri · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 3-1 (W)
Gagra
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Batumi · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Samgurali · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Meshakhte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Kutaisi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-2 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2026-04-07T17:00:00.000Z · Dila 1-1 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-10-21T15:00:00.000Z · Dila 5-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-08-10T17:00:00.000Z · Dila 1-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-04-28T15:00:00.000Z · Dila 2-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2025-03-06T13:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-10-06T16:00:00.000Z · Dila 5-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-08-03T17:00:00.000Z · Dila 0-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-04-21T16:00:00.000Z · Dila 1-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
- 2024-03-03T14:00:00.000Z · Dila 2-0 Gagra (Erovnuli Liga)
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 53 |
| 2 | Rustavi | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 52 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 51 |
| 5 | Dila | 29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 40 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | -9 | 38 |
| 7 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 37 |
| 8 | Gagra | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | -17 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 29 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -11 | 26 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | -27 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dila win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.