Stadion Dynamo · Analysis updated 01:17 UTC
Dinamo Barnaul vs Chelyabinsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Dinamo Barnaul and 1.33 for Chelyabinsk, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Dinamo Barnaul the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Barnaul win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Barnaul home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelyabinsk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Barnaul to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Dinamo Barnaul and 1.33 for Chelyabinsk, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.0%
Recent form
Dinamo Barnaul
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylya Sovetov II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs KDV · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelyabinsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Akron II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk · 0-3 (L)
Chelyabinsk
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ural · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tekstilshchik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Kostroma · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Neftekhimik · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Enisey · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Barnaul win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.