Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy · Referee O. Blotskaya · Analysis updated 09:57 UTC
Dinamo Brest vs Belshina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Dinamo Brest and 0.81 for Belshina, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Dinamo Brest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Brest win
71.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Brest home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belshina away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Brest to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Dinamo Brest and 0.81 for Belshina, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.7%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Dinamo Brest
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:10:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ML Vitebsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Baranovichi · 1-1 (D)
Belshina
- 2026-09-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vitebsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Neman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gomel · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 34 | 56 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 25 | 17 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 55 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 27 | 52 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -16 | 28 |
| 12 | Belshina | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -18 | 24 |
| 13 | Arsenal | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -20 | 23 |
| 14 | Bate Borisov | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -14 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 25 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -16 | 19 |
| 16 | Naftan | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -38 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Brest win, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.