Dinamo Brest vs Naftan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Dinamo Brest and 0.77 for Naftan, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Dinamo Brest the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Dinamo Brest win

81.0% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.93 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Dinamo Brest home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naftan away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Brest to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Dinamo Brest and 0.77 for Naftan, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Dinamo Brest win81%

Draw12%

Naftan win7%

Double chance 1X

93%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

19%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–010.6%
3–010.4%
2–18.2%
3–18.0%
4–07.6%

Recent form

Dinamo Brest

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-13T17:10:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-07T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ML Vitebsk · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Baranovichi · 1-1 (D)

Naftan

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-5 (L)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vitebsk · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	22	13	8	1	29	47
2	FC Isloch Minsk R.	23	13	7	3	19	46
3	Dinamo Minsk	22	14	4	4	22	46
4	Dinamo Brest	24	13	4	7	16	43
5	Neman	23	12	4	7	9	40
6	FC Gomel	24	11	6	7	11	39
7	FC Vitebsk	24	10	7	7	7	37
8	FC Minsk	24	10	4	10	1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	23	8	6	9	0	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	6	7	10	-4	25
11	Baranovichi	24	6	7	11	-17	25
12	Arsenal	24	5	8	11	-18	23
13	Bate Borisov	23	4	9	10	-10	21
14	Belshina	23	5	6	12	-17	21
15	Naftan	24	4	5	15	-31	17
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	24	2	10	12	-17	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dinamo Brest win, at 81.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.