· Analysis updated 15:18 UTC
Dinamo Bucureşti II vs Progresul Spartac Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Dinamo Bucureşti II and 1.38 for Progresul Spartac, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Progresul Spartac the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.7% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Bucureşti II home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Progresul Spartac away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Progresul Spartac to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Dinamo Bucureşti II and 1.38 for Progresul Spartac, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
Dinamo Bucureşti II
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Alexandria · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxigen Bucuresti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs LPS HD Clinceni · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cetatea · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Mogosoaia · 3-0 (W)
Progresul Spartac
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs CIL Blaj · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Metaloglobus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolintin Vale · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Fundulea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Axi Adunații-Copăceni · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Omega Sport | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Alexandria | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | LPS HD Clinceni | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Progresul Mogosoaia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Oxigen Bucuresti | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Cetatea | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Dinamo Bucureşti II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Voluntari II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Progresul Spartac | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | FCSB II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.