Dinamo Stadium · Referee Marian Barbu, Romania · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Dinamo Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Dinamo Bucuresti and 0.95 for Farul Constanta, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Dinamo Bucuresti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Bucuresti win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Bucuresti home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.6%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.6%
Recent form
Dinamo Bucuresti
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Farul Constanta · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Csikszereda · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FCSB · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lieşti · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 1-1 (D)
Farul Constanta
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 4-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2026-07-11T16:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 1-3 Farul Constanta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-02-04T18:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 3-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2025-12-03T16:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 0-0 Farul Constanta (Cupa României)
- 2025-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 1-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2025-02-15T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 0-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 1-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-02-12T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 2-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2023-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 0-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2022-01-15T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Bucuresti 2-2 Farul Constanta (Friendlies Clubs)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | Rapid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | FCSB | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Bucuresti win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.