· Analysis updated 09:03 UTC
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz vs Atletico Avila FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz and 0.77 for Atletico Avila FC, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.1% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Avila FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 33% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz and 0.77 for Atletico Avila FC, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 1–016.9%
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 2–08.3%
Recent form
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 0-2 (L)
Atletico Avila FC
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T20:00:00.000Z · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3-0 Atletico Avila FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-17T20:00:00.000Z · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 0-0 Atletico Avila FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-03-22T20:00:00.000Z · Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1-1 Atletico Avila FC (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 31 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -43 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 25 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -23 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.