· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz vs Monagas II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz and 1.24 for Monagas II, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monagas II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 27% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz and 1.24 for Monagas II, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 0-2 (L)
Monagas II
- 2026-10-25T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 56 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 55 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 43 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | -10 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | -14 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 32 | 4 | 3 | 25 | -47 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 45 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 43 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 42 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 26 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -10 | 22 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 26 | 1 | 11 | 14 | -23 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.