· Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Dinamo Ferizaj vs Llapi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Dinamo Ferizaj and 0.87 for Llapi, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Dinamo Ferizaj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Ferizaj win
68.1% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Ferizaj home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Llapi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Ferizaj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 19% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Dinamo Ferizaj and 0.87 for Llapi, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.7%
- 3–08.3%
Recent form
Dinamo Ferizaj
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Prishtina e Re · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Besa Peja · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Suhareka · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tefik Canga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KF Lepenci · 1-1 (D)
Llapi
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Drenica Skënderaj · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Malisheva · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vushtrria · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukagjini · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malisheva | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 2 | Prishtina | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Gjilani | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Drita | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Dukagjini | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Ballkani | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Drenica Skënderaj | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Feronikeli | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 9 | Llapi | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 4 |
| 10 | Vushtrria | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Ferizaj win, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.