VyatSShOR · Analysis updated 15:47 UTC
Dinamo Kirov vs Novosibirsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Dinamo Kirov and 1.13 for Novosibirsk, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Dinamo Kirov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Kirov home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Novosibirsk away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Kirov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Dinamo Kirov and 1.13 for Novosibirsk, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Dinamo Kirov
- 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Vladivostok · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-14T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Ska-khabarovsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mashuk-KMV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 2-1 (W)
Novosibirsk
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volgar Astrakhan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Bryansk · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rodina Moskva II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaluga · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League A - Division A Gold table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 30 |
| 2 | Dinamo Kirov | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 27 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Alaniya Vladikavkaz | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | Mashuk-KMV | 14 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Dinamo Bryansk | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 8 | Volgar Astrakhan | 14 | 1 | 11 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 9 | Kaluga | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | FK Sokol Saratov | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.