Anzhi-Arena · Referee Vasiliy Kazartsev, Russia · Analysis updated 08:56 UTC
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.49 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives FC Krasnodar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Krasnodar win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Dinamo Makhachkala home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Krasnodar away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 4.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.23 (model 77.9% vs market 74.5%, edge +3.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.23 | 74.5% | 77.9% | 1.28 | +3.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 71.4% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.55 | 21.1% | 23.0% | 4.35 | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.78 | 52.0% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +1.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.71 | 55.7% | 57.0% | 1.75 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.91 | 50.3% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.94 | 49.7% | 49.2% | 2.03 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 44.3% | 43.0% | 2.33 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.93 | 48.0% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -1.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 79.0% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -2.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.36 | 28.6% | 26.2% | 3.82 | -2.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.60 | 25.5% | 22.1% | 4.52 | -3.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Dinamo Makhachkala
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Leningradets · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:45:00.000Z · H vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Akhmat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Rodina Moskva · 2-0 (W)
FC Krasnodar
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Rostov · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Orenburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akron · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Krylia Sovetov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 1-2 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2025-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 0-2 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2025-04-25T16:30:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 2-3 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2024-07-28T17:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 0-0 FC Krasnodar (Premier League)
- 2024-06-29T16:00:00.000Z · Dinamo Makhachkala 0-2 FC Krasnodar (Friendlies Clubs)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 3 | FC Krasnodar | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | FC Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Rostov | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 11 | Rubin | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Akhmat | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Krasnodar win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.